If at first…

Statistics rarely tell the entire story, but in the instance of Brad Lidge and his difficulty in closing out games, maybe the statistics tell some of the story.

Sure, Lidge has blown more saves than any other reliever in the Majors and has the worst ERA (7.27) amongst all relievers, too. But that doesn't explain why he got so bad so quickly.

Lidge and the Phillies claim that he is not hurt. In fact, after  blown saves last week in Chicago and Saturday in Atlanta the closer maintained that he feels really good when he throws his pitches.

So maybe we can look no further than the first hitter Lidge faces when he gets into a game? Lidge has been in 48 games so far this season and in 17 of them he allowed the first hitter he faced to reach base.

Here's the thing — in those 17 games Lidge has allowed 25 earned runs in 14 innings for four blown saves. That comes to an ERA of 16.07.

That just might be the problem.

Here's why — in the 31 games in which Lidge retired the first batter he faced, he went on to allow 10 runs in 29 1/3 innings, which comes to a 3.07 ERA. Better yet, Lidge has saved 18 games in 22 chances when he retires the first hitter he faces.

Yes, that first hitter is the best indicator to determine whether it's going to be a good or bad night for Lidge and the Phillies.

Then again, what good are the numbers when Jose Mesa is the all-time leader in saves for the Phillies?